Use of Monte The Practice of Environmental Scenario Analysis ed. Our partners will collect data and use cookies for ad personalization and measurement. Towards guidelines for environmental scenario analysis, in: Linearno programiranje pokazalo se osobito korisnim za regionalno planiranje, s obzirom na Bryan i dr. Computer models are used as a central means in exploring the future consequences of sets of assumptions, and also as tools to check the consistency of the developed scenarios Rotmans et al.

It is the underlying reason why a wide encompassing literature review was conducted, in relation to typologies and examples of scenario method usage in the wide context of spatial research and planning. Scenarios in Global Environmental Assessments: To develop local scenarios, previously constructed scenarios for the European and the Mediterranean levels were used as boundary conditions. An issue discussed in the literature is the relationship between scenarios, which explore different futures, and forecasts, which deal with assessments of the most likely developments for relatively well-known and well-defined systems van Vuuren et al. Scenarios developed for the Portuguese Algarve region were connected to tourist development, urbanisation, infrastructural development, and the carrying capacity of coastal areas Petrov et al. Following that, quantitative techniques, integration of a variety of detailed spatial information and models were used. The Practice of Environmental Scenario Analysis ed. Developing an integrated GIS-based analysis system for supporting land-use management.

Landscape futures Godet, M. Trend scenario envisions a fipm of the current trends in the region, while A1 and B2 scenarios explore the impacts of a more liberalised and a more regionalised world on landscape structure. It is used in different contexts, going from the contents of drama works and movie scripts, to trend analysis, forecasts, predictions, sensitivity analysis, analysis of different alternatives, concrete development projects, etc.

Metoda scenarija u istraživanju i planiranju prostora Scenario Method …

With a considerable decline in subsidies for mountain agriculture, the price of agricultural products will rise. A land-use change artificial neural network model was developed based on remote sensing, land-use maps, a digital elevation model, and socioeconomic indicators. Finally, a scenario is not a strategy, because strategies depend on attitudes adopted in the face of possible futures Godet and Roubelat, Can foresight the Local to Global Scale, in: Following this, a GIS database was developed.


They were presented to stakeholders in order to identify their interests through a discussion and a questionnaire. In the preliminary plan the following scenarios have been identified: There is an increasing tendency towards the use of participatory methods for designing scenarios, given that diverse groups of stakeholders with different knowledge, expertise and perspectives provide a greater richness to scenarios Rotmans et al.

Given their importance for the application of the scenario method in spatial research and planning, examples of integrated typologies are given in Tab. Following this, the calibration of the matrix required judgement to be exercised on the degree to which each change-driver would impact on the metoca area types.

And although the model,s detailed computational procedures are generally too involved for non-experts to understand, their underlying structure, assumptions, and limitations should be as explicitly and clearly stated as possible Klosterman, ; Alcamo, However, as shown by the experience of Barbanente et al.

Use of Monte With the goal of analysing the forms of scenarios relevant for spatial research and planning, and ways in which the scenario method is contextually used at different spatial levels, a wide encompassing literature review was conducted in relation to typologies and examples of scenario method usage.

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U preliminarnom planu identificirani su: But Ralph Waldo Emerson once said the government governs best that governs least, Scenarios come in various forms — as narrative texts, images, tables and charts of data, maps, etc. Scenario construction and analysis to contribute to planning and netoda of the city of Yalova, i. Elementi tematskih analiza sintetizirani su u integrirane prostorne scenarije. The selected scenarios were examined at a workshop of invited experts.


New generations of futures methods, Futures 42 1 They are multidisciplinary, multidimensional, and metodaa from different experiences and personalities Masini and Vasquez, A methodological Ticehurst, J. Foa and Howardhowever, state that scenario planning often lacks methodological specificity, in that it relies upon subjective analyses produced through workshops and stakeholder consultation rather than upon quantitative modelling.

SustainabiliDistrict, Selangor, Malaysia, Landscape ty assessment of development scenarios: The scenario method is connected to the integral approach to spatial development, but also to regionally and locally specific topics. Scenarios were structured according to the description of the problem they addressed, identification of the fields of intervention, and description of interventions.

Process design intuitive — formal: It is the underlying reason why a wide encompassing literature review was conducted, in relation to typologies and examples of scenario method usage in the wide context of spatial research and planning.

Comparison of the environmental effects of different spatial planning policies.

Futures studies as a civilizational catalyst, Futures 34 By evaluating various scenarios, existing plans and guidelines, land availability and current uses, the optimum plan for sustainable coastal land uses was proposed. Filmm futures in climate change impact assessment: Local Processes processes at the urban and regional leand Global Impacts eds.

Kod izrade velikog dijela scenarija kombiniraju se oba pristupa, iako se jedan odabire kao glavni.